关于性的问题，让大数据来说话

Searching for Sex
关于性的问题，让大数据来说话

ARE you confused by sex? I certainly am.

性让你感到迷惑不解吗？我肯定是不解的。

One of the many reasons sex is puzzling is that we lack reliable data. People lie to friends, lovers, doctors, surveys and themselves.

性让人困惑的原因有很多，其中一个是我们缺乏可靠的数据。人们会欺骗朋友、恋人、医生、调查问卷，还有自己。

Three years ago, when I was a graduate student in economics, I began to write about how new data, particularly Google searches, could give us fresh insights into socially sensitive topics. Since then, many people have asked me to write about sex.

三年前，还在念经济学的研究生时，我开始写文章探讨新型数据——尤其是谷歌搜索的数据——如何给我们带来关于社会敏感话题的新见解。从那时起，就有很多人建议我写写性方面的话题。

I was wary because I wanted to do more research. Now I’m finally ready to report. Call it everything you always wanted to know about sex, but didn’t have the data to ask.

对此我态度谨慎，因为我希望进行更详实的研究。现在我终于准备好了。对于你一直想知道但却没有数据去了解的各种有关性的问题，本文会尝试给出答案。

Let’s start with the basics. How much sex are we having? Traditional surveys are no good at answering this question.

就从基本的问题说起吧。我们的性生活次数有多少？传统的调查问卷无法很好地回答这个问题。

I analyzed data from the General Social Survey, a classic source. Heterosexual men 18 and over say that they average 63 sex acts per year, using a condom in 23 percent of them. This adds up to more than 1.6 billion heterosexual condom uses per year.

美国“综合社会调查”(General Social Survey)是一个典型的数据来源，我分析了从那里获得的数据。18岁及以上的异性恋男性表示，他们每年平均进行63次性行为，其中23%使用安全套。这样算下来，每年在异性性行为中用掉的安全套总数应为逾16亿个。

Heterosexual women say they average 55 sex acts per year, using a condom in 16 percent of them. This adds up to about 1.1 billion heterosexual condom uses per year.

异性恋女性则表示，她们每年平均有55次性行为，其中16%使用安全套。这样算下来，每年在异性性行为中用掉的安全套总数应为11亿个左右。

Who is telling the truth, men or women?

到底谁说了真话，男性还是女性？

Neither. According to Nielsen, fewer than 600 million condoms are sold every year.

答案是：都没有。尼尔森(Nielsen)的数据显示，每年售出的安全套不足6亿个。

Americans may also be exaggerating how often they have unprotected sex. About 11 percent of women between the ages of 15 and 44 say they are sexually active, not currently pregnant and not using contraception. Even with relatively conservative assumptions about how many times they are having sex, we would expect 10 percent to become pregnant every month. But this would already be more than the total number of pregnancies in the United States (which is one in 113 women of childbearing age).

美国人可能还夸大了自己进行无防护措施的的性行为的次数。在15至44岁年龄段的女性中，约11%声称自己有活跃的性生活，但目前没有怀孕，也没有采取避孕措施。即使对她们的性生活次数进行比较保守的假设，估计其中也应该每月会有10%的人怀孕。但是，照此推算的数字将超出美国怀孕女性（每113名育龄女性中有1人在孕育生命）的总人数。

Men who have never been married claim to average 29 condom uses per year. This is more than the total number of condoms sold in the United States to married and single people combined.

从来没有结过婚的男性，声称自己每年平均使用29个安全套。这样算下来的数据比美国市场上出售给已婚和单身者的安全套总数还要多。

Married people probably exaggerate how much sex they have, too. On average, married men under 65 tell surveys they have sex once a week. Only 1 percent say they have gone the past year without sex. Married women say there is a little less sex but not much less.

已婚者也很可能夸大了自己的性生活次数。在调查问卷中，65岁以下的已婚男子表示他们的性行为平均频率达每周一次。只有1%的人承认自己过去一年中没有性生活。已婚女性自述的性行为频次略少一些，但相差也不大。

Google searches give a far less lively picture of sex during marriage.

然而，谷歌搜索数据却显示，在婚姻存续期间，人们的性生活远没有那么活跃。

On Google, the top complaint about a marriage is not having sex. Searches for “sexless marriage” are three and a half times more common than “unhappy marriage” and eight times more common than “loveless marriage.” There are 16 times more complaints about a spouse not wanting sex than about a married partner not being willing to talk.

在谷歌上，人们对婚姻的最大抱怨是没有性生活。“无性婚姻”的搜索量是“不幸婚姻”的3.5倍，是“无爱婚姻”的8倍。已婚者抱怨配偶不愿做爱的次数，是抱怨对方不愿交谈的16倍。

Even couples not yet married complain somewhat frequently about lack of sex. Google searches for “sexless relationship” are second only to searches for “abusive relationship.” (Abusive relationships are obviously a very important topic that I will return to in the future.)

即使是没有结婚的伴侣，也会比较频繁地抱怨自己缺乏性生活。谷歌搜索“无性交往关系”的频次，仅次于“不良交往关系”。（后者显然是一个非常重大的话题，我将来还会探讨。）

On Google, there are five and a half times more complaints about an unmarried partner not wanting sex than an unmarried partner refusing to text back. There are more complaints that a boyfriend “won’t have sex” than that a “girlfriend” won’t. Complaints about “husbands” and “wives” are roughly equal. (One quick point about sexuality. I am assuming that a large majority of searches with “my girlfriend” or “my wife” are by men. In a previous article, I argued that more men are gay than surveys suggest and that the closet remains a cause of huge amounts of secret suffering. But I also found that about 95 percent of men are heterosexual.) Taken altogether, the data suggest that Americans manage to have sex about 30 times per year — or once every 12 days.

在谷歌上，抱怨未婚伴侣不想做爱的次数，是抱怨不回短信的5.5倍。抱怨男友“不肯做爱”的搜索量，要多于抱怨“女友”不愿做爱的情况。而对“丈夫”和“妻子”的抱怨频次大致相当。（请注意关于性向方面的一个小提示：我在研究中假定搜索“我女友”或“我妻子”怎样怎样的人大多为男性。在以前的文章中，我曾谈到，和调查问卷的统计数据相比，有更大比例的男性是同性恋，而他们没有出柜仍是造成许多隐秘痛苦的一大原因。但我也发现，约95%的男性为异性恋。）种种数据综合起来，表明美国人每年大约有30次性行为，即每12天一次。

Sex can be quite fun. Why do we have so little of it?

性爱相当有趣。那为什么我们做爱的次数如此之少呢？

Google searches suggest one predominant reason: enormous anxiety, with much of it misplaced.

从谷歌搜索数据来看，巨大的焦虑感是一个突出的原因，而很多焦虑却来自于错误的认识。

Start with men’s neuroses. It isn’t news that men worry about their genitals, but the degree of this worry is rather profound. From a Google search alone, we cannot know the gender of a user. However, we can often make a pretty good guess for searches about sex and body parts, like “my penis ____.”

先从男性的多虑说起。男性对自己的生殖器官忧心忡忡已经不是什么新闻，但是这种担心的程度相当地严重。单是谷歌上的一次搜索，我们无从知晓用户是男是女。但是，如果一个人搜索性器官和身体部位，比如“我的阴茎”怎样怎样，我们通常可以做出相当靠谱的猜测。

Men Google more questions about their sexual organ than any other body part: more than about their lungs, liver, feet, ears, nose, throat and brain combined.

对于自己的性器官，男性进行搜索的次数比任何其他身体部位都多：超过了对肺、肝、脚、耳、鼻、喉和脑的搜索次数总和。

Men make more searches asking how to make their penises bigger than how to tune a guitar, make an omelet or change a tire. Men’s top Googled concern about steroids is whether taking them might make their penis smaller. Men’s top Googled question related to how their body or mind changed as they aged was whether their penis got smaller.

男性搜索如何让阴茎变得更大的频次，超过了如何给吉他调音、做煎蛋卷或是换轮胎。关于类固醇，男性搜索得最多的问题是它是否会让阴茎变小。对于变老之后，身心会起什么样的变化，男性最常搜索的问题也是阴茎是否会变小。

Side note: One of the more common questions for Google about a penis is “How big is my penis?” That men turn to Google, rather than a ruler, with this question is, in my opinion, a quintessential expression of our digital era.

另外插一句：在谷歌上，一个比较常见的关于阴茎的问题是：“我的阴茎有多大？”男人们会去问谷歌，而不是去找把尺子来获取答案，在我看来，这是当今数字时代的一种再典型不过的表现。

Do women care about penis size? Rarely, according to Google searches. For every search women make about a partner’s phallus, men make roughly 170 searches about their own.

那么，女人在乎阴茎的大小吗？从谷歌搜索来看，她们真不怎么在乎。女性搜索伴侣阴茎问题的次数，与男性自己搜索它的次数之比大约是1:170。

TRUE, on the rare occasions women do express concerns about a partner’s penis, it is frequently about its size, but not necessarily that it is small. More than 40 percent of complaints about a partner’s penis size is that it is too big. “Pain” is the most Googled word used in searches with the phrase “___ during sex.” (“Bleeding,” “peeing,” “crying” and “farting” round out the top five.)

诚然，在女性对伴侣阴茎表示不满的少数情况下，往往的确涉及尺寸，但不一定是觉得它小。对伴侣阴茎大小的抱怨中，有逾40%是抱怨太大。“疼痛”是人们在谷歌上搜索“性交时”怎样怎样最常见的词。（前五位中的另外四个依次为“出血”、“尿尿”、“哭泣”和“放屁”。）

One percent of searches looking to change one’s penis size are seeking information on how to make it smaller.

在寻求如何改变阴茎尺寸的搜索中，有1%是想知道怎样让它变小。

Another major sexual concern is climaxing prematurely. Men’s second-most-common sex question is how to make their sexual encounters longer.

性爱方面的另一个主要关注点是早泄。男性问出的第二常见的性问题，就是如何延长自己的性交时间。

Once again, the insecurities of men do not appear to match the concerns of women. There are roughly the same number of searches asking how to make a boyfriend climax more quickly as climax more slowly. In fact, the most common concern women have related to a boyfriend’s orgasm isn’t about when it happened but why it isn’t happening at all.

在这方面，男性的不安全感似乎又一次与女性的关注点发生了错位。询问如何让男朋友更快达到高潮和更慢达到高潮的搜索数量大致是相当的。事实上，女性对于男友性高潮最常见的担忧，不是它什么时候发生，而是为什么根本就没有。

We do not often talk about male body insecurity. And while it is true that overall interest in personal appearance skews female, it is not as lopsided as stereotypes would suggest. According to my analysis of Google AdWords (also based on anonymous, aggregate web activity), interest in beauty and fitness is 42 percent male; weight loss is 33 percent male; and cosmetic surgery is 39 percent male. Among all searches with “how to” related to breasts, about 20 percent ask how to get rid of man breasts.

我们不常谈论男性在身体上的不安全感。而且虽然从整体上来说，人们对女性的相貌身材有更强的兴趣，但是男女之间在这方面的差距，也没有很多人以为的那么严重。根据我对谷歌AdWords（使用的也是匿名、汇总性在线活动数据）的分析，对美容和健身表示兴趣的人中，有42%是男性；对减肥感兴趣的人中，男性占33%；对整容手术感兴趣的人中，男性占39%。在所有关于胸部的“怎样才能如何如何”的搜索中，约有20%是询问如何去除男性胸部的脂肪。

What can this new data teach us about women’s insecurities? Every year, in the United States, there are more than seven million searches looking into breast implants. Official statistics tell us that about 300,000 women go through with it annually.

我们能从这种新型数据中，窥探女性的不安全感吗？在美国，每年有超过700万次关于隆胸的搜索。官方统计数据告诉我们，每年约有30万女性做隆胸手术。

Women also show a great deal of insecurity about their behinds, although many women have recently flip-flopped on what it is they don’t like about them.

女性对自己的臀部也表现了极大的不安全感。不过对于希望自己臀部有怎样的变化，很多女性的看法发生了逆转。

In 2004, in some parts of the United States, the most common search regarding changing one’s butt was how to make it smaller. The desire to make one’s bottom bigger was overwhelmingly concentrated in areas with large black populations. Beginning in 2010, however, the desire for bigger butts grew in the rest of the United States. This interest has tripled in four years. In 2014, there were more searches asking how to make your butt bigger than smaller in every state. These days, for every five searches looking into breast implants in the United States, there is one looking into butt implants.

在2004年，在美国的一些地区，关于改变臀部的搜索中，最常见的是如何让它更小。让臀部变大的兴趣，主要集中在黑人人口较多的地区。但是从2010年开始，这种愿望在美国其他地区也增强了。之后的四年里，这种愿望提高了两倍。2014年，在美国的所有州，如何让臀部变大的查询，都超过了如何让它变小。如今在美国，搜索隆胸和隆臀的搜索次数比例为5:1。

Does women’s growing preference for a larger behind match men’s preferences? Interestingly, yes. “Big butt porn” searches, which also used to be concentrated in black communities, have recently shot up in popularity throughout the United States.

女性希望臀部变得更大，男性是否也希望女性如此呢？很有趣，是的。“巨臀色情”搜索曾经主要集中在黑人社区，最近却风靡整个美国。

What else do men want in a woman’s body? In the no surprise department, men show a preference for large breasts. About 12 percent of nongeneric pornographic searches are looking for big breasts. This is nearly 20 times higher than the search volume for small-breast porn.

男性对女性身体还有什么别的偏好呢？这个问题的答案并不令人惊讶：男性偏爱大胸。在特定色情内容搜索中，有12%都是在寻找巨乳，几乎是贫乳内容搜索量的近20倍。

That said, it is not clear that this means men want women to get breast implants. About 3 percent of big-breast porn searches explicitly say they want to see natural breasts.

但是并不清楚，这是否意味着男性希望女性隆胸。大约3%的巨乳色情内容搜索者明确表示，他们希望看到自然的胸部。

Google searches about one’s wife and breast implants are evenly split between asking how to persuade her to get implants and perplexity as to why she wants them.

在谷歌上搜索“妻子”和“隆胸”的人中，一群人想知道如何说服妻子隆胸，另一群则对妻子想隆胸感到莫名其妙。这两个群体人数相当。

Or consider the most common search about a girlfriend’s breasts: “I love my girlfriend’s boobs.” It is not clear what men are hoping to find from Google when making this search.

关于女友的胸部，谷歌上最常见的搜索词条是：“我爱女友的胸。”不清楚男性希望用这句话在谷歌上搜到怎样的内容。

Women, like men, have questions about their genitals. In fact, they have nearly as many questions about their vaginas as men have about their penises. Women’s worries about their vaginas are often health-related. But at least 30 percent of their questions take up other concerns. Women want to know how to shave it, tighten it and make it taste better. A strikingly common concern is how to improve its odor.

和男性一样，女性也搜索了关于生殖器的问题。事实上，她们提出的阴道方面的问题，数量几乎和男性提出的阴茎方面的问题一样多。女性对阴道的担忧往往关于健康。但至少有30%的问题涉及其他方面。比如女人想知道如何剃阴毛、让阴道缩紧、使其口感更好。一个格外普遍的关注点是，如何改善阴道的气味。

Women are most frequently concerned that their vaginas smell like fish, followed by vinegar, onions, ammonia, garlic, cheese, body odor, urine, bread, bleach, feces, sweat, metal, feet, garbage and rotten meat.

女性最经常担心的是她们的阴道散发鱼腥味，接下来依次是醋味、洋葱味、氨气味、蒜味、奶酪味、体臭、尿味、面包味、漂白水味、粪便味、汗味、金属味、脚臭、垃圾味和腐肉味。

In general, men do not make many Google searches involving a partner’s genitalia. Men make roughly the same number of searches about a girlfriend’s vagina as women do about a boyfriend’s penis.

总体而言，男性并没有对与伴侣的生殖器有关的问题，进行大量的谷歌搜索。男人搜索女友阴道的次数与女人搜索男友阴茎的次数不相上下。

When men do search about a partner’s vagina, it is usually to complain about what women worry about most: the odor. Mostly, men are trying to figure out how to tell a woman about a bad odor without hurting her feelings. Sometimes, however, men’s questions about the odor reveal their own insecurities. Men occasionally ask for ways to use the smell to detect cheating — if it smells like condoms, for example, or another man’s semen.

当男性搜索与伴侣的阴道相关的问题时，往往抱怨的是女性最担忧的那件事：气味。通常的情况是，男性想要知道如何在不伤害女伴感情的前提下，告诉她气味不佳。不过，有时候，男性提出的气味问题揭示了他们自己的不安全感。他们时不时会问到利用气味察觉出轨的方法——比如，怎么分辨安全套的气味，或是别的男人精液的气味。

I know I am obsessed with Google searches and other new data sets. I ask myself all the time whether I am taking it too far. Every researcher, no matter how grounded in data, can let his biases get in the way of the truth. This data is all public. Other researchers will undoubtedly add their own interpretations and ask new questions.

我知道自己对谷歌搜索等新数据集颇为迷恋，也总是扪心自问是不是走得太远了。每一位研究者，不管靠数据说话的程度有多高，都可能让自己的偏见遮蔽事实。这些数据都是公开的。其他研究人员无疑也将做出自己的诠释，提出新的问题。

Dan Ariely, a psychologist at Duke, offers a reason for caution in interpreting this data. While most data sources underestimate sexual thoughts, he suspects that Google may overestimate them.

杜克大学的心理学者丹·艾瑞里(Dan Ariely)给出了一个应当谨慎解释这组数据的理由。尽管大部分数据来源会低估性方面的想法，但他怀疑，谷歌搜索结果或许是高估了。

As Professor Ariely put it, “Google is a reflection of what people don’t know and need extra information about.” If you want to know how to make omelets, you may just ask a relative. You are less likely to ask your relatives about penis enlargement.

正如艾瑞里教授指出的，“谷歌反映的是人们不了解，且需要额外信息的东西。”如果你想知道如何烹调煎蛋卷，可以直接去问亲戚。至于阴茎增大，就不大可能去问亲戚了。

Another surprising thing about “big data” is how small it often is. Many people expect that any given Google search will be made millions of times. You may look at the accompanying graphic that includes the total monthly search volumes for various phrases and think, “That’s it?”

一个更令人惊讶的问题是，这些“大数据”实际上往往很“小”。许多人以为，任何一个问题都会有数以百万计的谷歌搜索次数。看看本文的配图，里头有不同词组的月搜索总量。看过之后，你们大概会想，“就这么点？”

People do not type everything they think into Google. Google data is a small sample of everybody’s thoughts and concerns. It is suggestive, not definitive.

人们不会把脑袋里的每件事都输进谷歌。谷歌数据只是大家所思所想的事情中，很小的一部分样本。它能说明一些问题，但并非确凿无疑。

I AM hardly an expert on sex. Professionally, I am neither a psychologist nor a sex therapist.

我绝非性问题专家。从专业角度来说，本人既不是心理学者，也不是性方面的治疗师。

But here’s what I think.

不过我的想法是这样的：

Just about every study I have done relying on Google searches made me feel worse about the world. Huge numbers of people are racist and sexist; far too many children suffer from unreported abuse. But after studying the new data on sex, I actually feel better.

我基于谷歌搜索结果所做的几乎每项研究，都让我对这个世界感觉更糟了。大批人持有种族主义和性别歧视的想法；太多太多的孩子遭受了虐待却没有报案。然而，研究了关于性的这组新数据之后，我的感觉却变好了。

This data makes me feel less lonely. In my previous studies of Google data, I had found the viciousness that humans often hide. But this time around, I have seen our hidden insecurities. Men and women are united in this insecurity and confusion.

这批数据让我觉得没那么孤单。以前对谷歌数据进行研究时，我总是会发掘出人们惯常隐藏的邪恶。可是这一次，我看到的却是隐藏的不安全感。尘世男女在这种不安全感和困惑感当中，走到了一起。